Europa – Ab 2012 Vertreibung der Muslime

NOT WELCOME HERE

Immigration, always a hot button issue, will be getting
much hotter in 2010. Nations' doors that had
been left ajar, to let in millions of hungry workers to
fill bottom-feeder jobs considered beneath the dignity
of the native born, will be shutting tight. Unwelcome,
but tolerated in the best of times, in these worse --
and worsening times -- immigrants will become popular
scapegoats and easy political targets.

When economies boom and good jobs are
plentiful, an imported cheap labor force often fills
a need. But when an economic crisis hits and/or
when immigrant population reaches a level that
threatens to change the complexion and character
of a nation, immigration moves from the shadows
into the limelight.
The formula is the same, the story familiar, and
the outcome varying depending upon the economic
climate. Today's uproar is nothing new. "There can
be no doubt that there is a very earnest desire on
the part of the American people to restrict further,
and much more extensively than has yet been done,
foreign immigration to the United States," speechified
Senator Henry Cabot Lodge in 1909, at the tail
end of the largest immigration wave the US had yet
experienced.
A hundred years later, in 2010, long-simmering
anti-immigration sentiment in the US and around
the globe will again be subject to cyclical conditions.
This time, however, the descending wave of
the cycle will be longer and steeper, and the response
more dramatic than commonly anticipated.
We forecast that a fully matured anti-immigration
trend will settle in and establish itself as a significant
political force for the foreseeable future.
It took from the dawn of time until about 1900
for the planet's population to top a billion and a
half. But it took just 100 years to add another five
billion, and by 2040, a projected nine billion humans
will inhabit the globe.
While projections by "experts" regarding the
planet's ability to sustain such numbers -- given finite
natural resources such as food, fuel, water, sanitation
-- are open to debate, what is certain is that
never in recorded history has the planet and all its
institutions, nations and systems been so suddenly
subjected to an onslaught of human population.
Without further discussion of the complexities
of Malthusian population theory in its contemporary
formulation, what we at The Trends Research
Institute regard as incontrovertible fact is that more
people are being created than jobs to sustain them.
Simply put, native born citizens who still have
jobs -- or who are looking for them -- do not want to
lose jobs or compete with foreigners in a shrinking
job market.
Faced with this reality, as the world copes with
the most severe economic crisis in decades -- perhaps
ever -- and its attendant unemployment, governments
from Taiwan to Thailand, and Australia to
Russia, have passed laws cutting or outright stopping
the issuance of work permits to foreigners,
both low and high-skilled.

No Room at The Inn
The "foreign born" populations
of the US, and the nations of Europe, Australia
and Canada are now approaching, or have already
surpassed, double digits. Their search for jobs
has sent them beyond large cities (the traditional
melting pots) and into the heartland, the small
towns where "diversity" has never been welcome.
14 The Trends Journal o Winter 2010
But at those double-digit levels, both the unwillingness
and inability of immigrants to assimilate has
inflamed an already tense atmosphere.
Immigrants bring with them all the problems
of the poor, which become the problems of their
destinations, now saddled with the considerable
burden of providing services -- healthcare, welfare,
education, housing -- to them and their children.
And everywhere they settle in noticeable numbers,
the anger and anxiety of the local population at
the drain on distressed local budgets financed by
"native" tax dollars intensifies. Not only is taxpayer
anger directed at the toll taken on shrinking resources,
but also by the real or perceived increase
in drug use, crime and hijacked jobs.
Beyond economics, the heavy immigration
influx in America and Europe is provoking
an identity crisis. Public anxiety over
changing national character, culture,
and beleaguered values threatened by
the fast pace of immigration is trending
into public hostility. In Europe, where
the native population is already close to
becoming a minority in major cities such
as Marseilles, Rotterdam and Cologne,
resentment and fear over "Islamification"
has transformed fringe, far-right anti-immigration
political parties into major players.
In addition, in the US, the UK and parts of
Europe, the threat of terrorism, generically attributed
to Muslims, is being fanned to frenzy levels.
The former guest workers from Turkey, North Africa
and the Middle East have resisted or been denied
integration into new countries, where their
foreign dress, foreign languages and alien values
have made them a highly visible reminder of the
uncertainty of the future. That their dominant religion
has become identified with terrorism in the
minds of many has speeded up both cultural and
political backlash.
Voters in the 2009 European Parliament election
cast record ballots for anti-immigration parties,
in some cases doubling their representation
as compared to 2005. Far-right parties in Austria,
Denmark, Hungary, Italy and the Netherlands all
achieved double-digit results. Even in the staid
UK, the avowedly racist British National Party secured
8 percent of the vote and, for the first time,
was able to send delegates to the EP.
But even those election results don't reveal the
full power of the anti-immigrant trend. Throughout
Europe, politicians are adopting tough policies
to play to the public mood. In Italy, though only 10
percent of the vote went to the far right Northern
League, some of the fiercest anti-immigration laws
and policy in Europe have already been implemented,
proving the trend is taking over the center
as well. The Italian legislature has voted to set up
citizen anti-crime patrols (i.e., anti-immigration
vigilantes) and sentence landlords who rent to
undocumented immigrants up to three years in
prison.
Proposals to ban the burqua and head scarf
worn by Muslim women, and the special prayer
time for Muslim school children are
springing up all over Europe. And the
minaret question has become a lightning
rod for anti-immigrant sentiment.
The minaret is a slender tower often
perched above a mosque; the Muslim
version of a church spire. It's a brick and
mortar statement that changes the landscape
and says: "Islam is here to stay."
And as such, minarets are an unwelcome prospect
to many Europeans, who have frequently challenged
their construction. The Swiss referendum
to ban the construction of new minarets in November
2009, which was passed with 58 percent of the
vote, illustrates the depth of both anti-immigration
and anti-Muslim sentiments. Switzerland is a direct
democracy in which the people, not political
parties, vote on issues.
Prior to the vote, virtually every mainstream
government, political party and religious official
weighed in against the ban. Newspapers and pollsters
predicted, "It can't happen here," and that the
referendum would go down in defeat, with barely
30 percent of the vote. The lopsided anti-minaret
victory has been construed as an act of mass defiance
against established socio-political institutions,
and an elite out of touch with the sentiments
of its constituents. Most significant, the ban found
substantial support on the left, from secularists
and feminists ... the usually predictable "pro and
con" factions proved unpredictable.
Trendpost: Immigrant populations and the second
generation -- born into and citizens of their new
countries -- can be expected to strongly resist the
"go back where you came from" movements. Oppression
often breeds resistance. Newly organized
"immigrant civil rights" movements will develop,
polarizing and further inflaming the anti-immigrant
sentiments.
As we go to press, reports are coming in of a
"violent protest march" by African migrants who
work the the fields in the Calabrian town of Rosarno,
Italy. Responding to earlier shootings of
several migrants by unknown gunman, a march on
the Rosano town hall by some two thousand Africans
devolved into a car-burning riot. According
to the Guardian, "Reports have emerged of mafia
involvement in a vigilante-style response by locals
to the immigrants' protest, including setting up a
roadblock and hunting down stray Africans in the
streets of Rosarno."
Following the riots, the Italian police rounded
up some 1,300 African workers and shipped them to
detention centers. The Italian Interior Minister has
declared an "immigration emergency" and put the regional
police in charge of guaranteeing public order.
Editor's Note: A large-scale study by the European
Union in late 2009 found that immigrants were
reporting rampantly racist, anti-immigrant and Islamophobic
daily experiences. For example, they
reported discriminatory treatment from doctors and
shopkeepers, and especially when they were looking
for jobs. Police forces throughout Europe have recorded
steep increases in race-related hate crimes.

THE AMERICAN BRAND
While anti-immigration is a much-publicized issue
worldwide, in the US, in terms of both numbers
and implications the trend has the potential to be
more far-reaching. According to United Nations estimates,
while the US comprises 5 percent of the
world population, it is home to about 20 percent of
the world's immigrants. When it comes to "illegals"
the US is resoundingly #1, with more than a third
of the world's 30 million unauthorized immigrants
within its borders.
In 2010, with health care reform off the front
burner and with mid-term elections looming, the
Obama administration will be forced to tackle the
festering issue of immigration reform. What to do
with -- or to -- the 12 million plus illegals will "make
or break" many campaigns.
As with the Swiss minaret vote that found support
from voters expected to oppose it, so too will
the US anti-immigration trend unite a coalition of
strange political bedfellows. Sending back illegals,
once a rallying cry mainly associated with right wing
conservatives, is now resonating as well with the unemployed,
the financially distressed, and the many
who see only economic hard times ahead.
Voters from the left and the center will cast ballots
with those from the right and far right as their
anxiety trumps their principles.
Trend Forecast: Neither Democrats nor Republicans
will devise a solution that satisfies the new coalition
of voters adamantly opposed to an immigration compromise.
Repatriating illegals will become a major
plank of a new Third party that we forecast will be
a force to reckon with by 2012.
Trend Forecast: The estimated 38 million foreignborn
persons living in the US make up nearly 13
percent of the population. But almost 25 percent of
children under age 17 have at least one immigrant
parent. Within about 20 years, the US Census Bureau
estimates minority kids will be the majority.
Within 40 years -- or less, if the trend continues --
white Americans in general will be in the minority.
It is not inconceivable, therefore, that at some point
in the future, Southwest "Mexicano" rebellions will
be waged with the Latino majority of the populace
demanding a return of the territories to Mexico.
Trendpost: The identity-politics that immigration
will bring to a boil will be mirrored by identity-consumerism.
Some corporations will find short-term
gains in "Stars and Stripes" marketing, while others
will draw customers with a "We Are The World"
approach. An understanding of, and attention to the
demographic realities of the customer base will be
necessary to maintain thriving brands.